Technical Take: May 1, 2013

The first trading day in May represents  the start of three days of widely viewed data point releases, including major central bank releases, and US employment. Here’s how the charts look ahead of the US trading session (click all images for larger versions):

S&P 500 Futures


The above is an hourly chart of the S&P 500 futures over the last four weeks or so. The price action from the 1530 low indicates that we are now struggling for momentum. Particularly the action from Friday. The 1600 benchmark might be hit, but I believe a correction is imminent. The red trendline will be crucial and must be broken to the downside to confirm.

Crude Oil Futures

may 1 cl 1h

One hour chart. The blue areas I’ve circled have proven to be supply areas from the 94-95 area. They were challenged once again earlier this week and have sold off from there once again. However, the red trendline still keeps the up move since 85 in tact. A possible break below that trend will confirm the reestablishment of a move lower.


may 1 eurjpy1h

Hour chart. One of the most interesting markets to play of late. The massive 1200 point move higher from 119, on the BOJ declaration of doubling the money supply to double inflation, has taken a breather for the better part of the last 3 weeks. I do think that ultimately this pair will go higher, but for now correction is still the way to play this. The three red lines, in Elliott Wave parlance, represent the three corrective waves that should play out before a move higher. As I write this, the pair sits at 128.6, following a move higher from the beginning of the week. This move ends what looks to be a B wave, within the context of  the larger down C wave that started last Sunday at 130.66, and is represented by the third red line. My target for that  move is around 124.


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